Stonksmaster: Bitcoin
New to Stonksmaster?
We publish daily price forecasts for the DJIA, Bitcoin, Gold, and more — updated every day.
Start with today’s forecast or see Bitcoin trends »
Showing posts with label Bitcoin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bitcoin. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 19, 2025

Bitcoin Market Analysis — November 19, 2025

 Daily & Weekly Levels to Watch

Bitcoin continues its pullback today, but the broader trend remains within a clear channel. As volatility picks up, traders around the world are watching how BTC reacts to a small set of meaningful price levels—levels that have consistently guided the market over the past several weeks.

This report focuses on the most important ranges and zones for both the short- and medium-term outlook.


🔹 Yesterday’s Market (Nov 18)

Open: $92,141
High: $93,785
Low: $89,289
Close: $92,946

BTC spent most of the day in a tight compression zone before dipping back toward support.


🔹 Today’s Expected Range (Nov 19)

My daily model projects a broad window as volatility increases:

Expected Low: $88,585
Expected High: $97,266

This places price right in the middle of a short-term retracement, with both upside and downside space available.


 


🔹 Weekly Rolling Forecast

The higher time-frame continues to show a wide channel:

Expected Low: $78,139
Expected High: $107,712

As long as BTC stays inside this range, the overall structure remains intact.


 


🔹 Key Price Levels to Watch

1. $89,000 – Current Pivot Zone

This level is doing most of the heavy lifting.
A clean bounce here keeps the trend constructive.
A breakdown opens the door to lower supports.

2. $96,000 – $103,000 — Resistance Cluster

This zone stopped the last move higher and remains the first wall for any recovery attempt.
Multiple time-frames align here, making it the “battle line” for bulls.

3. $78,000 – $79,000 — Deep Support

If selling accelerates or volatility spikes, this is the most likely destination.
Both daily and weekly models converge here, creating a major higher-time-frame support area.

4. $107,000 — Upper Weekly Boundary

This is the long-term upside target if Bitcoin stabilizes and turns higher.
Breaking and holding above this would shift momentum sharply bullish.


🔹 Trend Context

Despite the pullback, Bitcoin is still trading inside a healthy weekly structure.
The near-term momentum is weak, but so far the price action looks like a retracement, not a breakdown.

The next major decision point is simple:
Does BTC hold above the $88K–$89K zone or not?

Holding it → recovery toward $96K–$103K.
Losing it → eyes shift to $82K, then $78K–$79K.


🔹 Conclusion

Bitcoin remains in a wide, flexible trading channel with meaningful support below and resistance overhead. The key levels continue to guide each move, and until price breaks out of these ranges, the current macro structure remains intact.

Today’s focus: Watch the $88–89K pivot.
How price reacts here will shape the next leg.

Wednesday, June 4, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Expected Price Range for 2025-06-04

Enhanced Analysis: Bitcoin Risk Assessment Report

Generated: 2025-06-04 14:33:54 Local

Yesterday's Market:
Date: 2025-06-03

  Open:  $105,908.79
  High:  $106,888.12
  Low:   $104,926.88
  Close: $105,447.66

Today's Daily Forecast:
Date: 2025-06-04

  Expected Low:  $102,777.48
  Expected High: $108,007.81

Weekly Rolling Forecast:

  Expected Low:  $95,317.91
  Expected High: $116,499.67

Technical Analysis:
  RSI (14):           50.0
  Market Regime:      Transitional
  Regime Confidence:  40.0%
  Volatility (ATR):   $2,871.84 (2.7%)
  Volume Trend:       -26.32%
  24h Volume:         $972.11M

Daily Fibonacci Levels (10-day):
  Strong Support:     $104,938.92
  Moderate Support:   $106,059.39
  Moderate Resistance: $107,870.56
  Strong Resistance:  $108,991.03

Weekly Fibonacci Levels (21-day):
  Strong Support:     $103,906.81
  Moderate Support:   $105,453.22
  Moderate Resistance: $107,952.88
  Strong Resistance:  $109,499.29

Risk Assessment Matrix:
  Overall Risk:       MEDIUM (49/100)
  
  Component Breakdown:
    Technical Risk:   40/100
    Volatility Risk:  40/100
    Volume Risk:      80/100
    Momentum Risk:    45/100

Directional Bias Analysis:
  Primary Bias:       NEUTRAL
  Confidence:         50.0%
  
  Position Recommendations:
    LONG Positions:   MEDIUM risk
                      Max Size: 2.0% of account
    
    SHORT Positions:  MEDIUM risk
                      Max Size: 0.5% of account
    
    NEUTRAL Strategy: MEDIUM risk
                      Max Size: 1.5% of account

Trading Signal Breakdown:

BULLISH SIGNALS (0/6 total points):
  RSI Oversold:     0 pts
  Bullish Momentum: 0 pts  
  Support Level:    0 pts
  Volume Support:   0 pts

BEARISH SIGNALS (1/6 total points):
  RSI Overbought:   0 pts
  Bearish Momentum: 0 pts
  High Volatility:  0 pts
  Resistance Level: 0 pts
  Volume Weakness:  1 pts

Signal Scoring:
• RSI signals: 2 pts (extreme), 1 pt (moderate)
• Momentum/Volatility: 2 pts (strong), 1 pt (moderate)  
• Support/Resistance: 1 pt (near key levels)
• Volume: 1 pt (confirms direction)

Risk Management Notes:
* RSI uses crypto-optimized thresholds (oversold <20, 
  overbought >80)
* Position sizing incorporates directional bias multipliers
* Short positions capped at 50% of long position size 
  due to unlimited risk
* High volatility regimes trigger automatic position 
  reduction
* Volume analysis confirms or contradicts price movements
* Fibonacci levels calculated on both 10-day and 21-day 
  periods using extended historical data for accurate 
  support/resistance identification

** This analysis integrates academic research on crypto 
   risk assessment including asymmetric risk profiles 
   and regime-dependent volatility patterns

*** Risk scores calibrated for institutional-grade crypto 
    trading systems with real-time market regime detection 
    and directional bias optimization

See also: More Bitcoin Forecasts

Daily Price Forecast

Weekly Price Forecast

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The information herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable but we make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. We disclaim all liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this information. Data may contain errors or omissions. Calculations are provided as-is without warranty. Always conduct your own research and consult qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. Use at your own risk.

📈 Gráfico BTC/USDT (Brasil – Localizado)

Support This Project

Loading…

BTC:
bc1q85e6rdq2xf6lIter9krw9dgeqccq7giyyt8eq
USDT (TRC20):
TBlCCSvx7Pfb5JNeKJsu9bEPkDtLUplHszH
ETH:
0xBd81F3019af5A76724Be33B3EDABFCE58c97d5

Stonksmaster's Substack

Avalanche (AVAX-USD) Expected Price Range for 2025-12-13

Summary: Based on our analysis for 2025-12-13, AVAX-USD projects a price corridor of 12.44-14.50. Yesterday, the cryptocurrency registered ...