Summary:
Enhanced Analysis: Bitcoin Risk Assessment Report
Generated: 2025-12-03 14:27:01 Local
Yesterday's Market:
Date: 2025-12-02
Open: $86,302.37
High: $92,332.31
Low: $86,199.69
Close: $91,315.07
Today's Daily Forecast:
Date: 2025-12-03
Expected Low: $83,281.77
Expected High: $88,867.19
Weekly Rolling Forecast:
Expected Low: $73,561.51
Expected High: $98,587.45
Technical Analysis:
RSI (14): 50.0
Market Regime: Transitional
Regime Confidence: 40.0%
Volatility (ATR): $3,930.53 (4.3%)
Volume Trend: -106.94%
Volume (24h): $90.07B (CoinGecko)
Daily Fibonacci Analysis (15 days):
Focus: Significance-based minor swings (15.2% moves)
Swing High: $93,785.83
Swing Low: $80,562.05
Range: $13,223.78
Trend: Uptrend Retracement
Confirmation: Confirmed (15 bars)
Daily Key Levels:
Support: $90,665.02 (23.6%)
Resistance: $93,785.83 (0%)
Key Support: $87,173.94 (50%)
Daily Retracements:
0.0%: $93,785.83 0.0%
38.2%: $88,734.35 38.2%
50.0%: $87,173.94 50.0%
61.8%: $85,613.53 61.8%
100.0%: $80,562.05 100.0%
Daily Extensions:
127.2%: $76,965.18
141.4%: $75,087.41
161.8%: $72,389.75
261.8%: $59,165.97
Weekly Fibonacci Analysis (60 days):
Focus: Significance-based major swings (44.2% moves)
Swing High: $126,287.29
Swing Low: $80,562.05
Range: $45,725.24
Trend: Uptrend Retracement
Confirmation: Confirmed (60 bars)
Weekly Key Levels:
Support: $115,496.13 (23.6%)
Resistance: $126,287.29 (0%)
Key Support: $103,424.67 (50%)
Weekly Retracements:
0.0%: $126,287.29 0.0%
38.2%: $108,820.25 38.2%
50.0%: $103,424.67 50.0%
61.8%: $98,029.09 61.8%
100.0%: $80,562.05 100.0%
Weekly Extensions:
127.2%: $68,124.78
141.4%: $61,631.80
161.8%: $52,303.85
261.8%: $6,578.61
Fibonacci Convergence Zones:
Zone 1: $80,562.05
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: daily & weekly
Ratios: 100.0%, 100.0%
Zone 2: $90,506.13
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: daily & weekly
Ratios: 78.6%, 23.6%
Risk Assessment Matrix:
Overall Risk: MEDIUM (57/100)
Component Breakdown:
Technical Risk: 60/100
Volatility Risk: 60/100
Volume Risk: 40/100
Momentum Risk: 65/100
Directional Bias Analysis:
Primary Bias: NEUTRAL
Confidence: 50.0%
Position Recommendations:
LONG Positions: MEDIUM risk
Max Size: 1.0% of account
SHORT Positions: HIGH risk
Max Size: 0.5% of account
NEUTRAL Strategy: MEDIUM risk
Max Size: 0.8% of account
Trading Signal Breakdown:
BULLISH SIGNALS (0/7 total points):
RSI Oversold: 0 pts
Bullish Momentum: 0 pts
Support Level: 0 pts
Volume Support: 0 pts
BEARISH SIGNALS (0/7 total points):
RSI Overbought: 0 pts
Bearish Momentum: 0 pts
High Volatility: 0 pts
Resistance Level: 0 pts
Volume Weakness: 0 pts
Signal Scoring:
• RSI signals: 2 pts (extreme), 1 pt (moderate)
• Momentum/Volatility: 2 pts (strong), 1 pt (moderate)
• Support/Resistance: 1 pt (near key levels)
• Volume: 1 pt (confirms direction)
📋 Risk Management Notes:
* Enhanced Fibonacci analysis with convergence zone detection
* Daily analysis focuses on 2-3% significance moves (15-day lookback)
* Weekly analysis focuses on 5-7% significance moves (60-day lookback)
* Convergence zones identify high-probability support/resistance areas
* Swing confirmation requires 2+ bar validation
* Position sizing incorporates directional bias multipliers
* Short positions capped at 50% of long position size due to unlimited risk
* Risk parameters automatically adjust based on current volatility regime
🔬 Technical Methodology:
* Fibonacci levels: Professional ratios (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%) with extensions (127.2%, 141.4%, 161.8%, 261.8%)
* Crypto-optimized RSI thresholds (oversold <20, overbought >80)
* Automatic trend context detection (uptrend/downtrend/range-bound)
* Multi-timeframe convergence analysis (1.5% price tolerance)
* Market regime classification with confidence scoring
* Extended historical data for accurate swing identification
* Analysis integrates institutional-grade swing detection with significance thresholds and confirmation requirements for reliable level identification
* Risk scores calibrated for crypto trading with real-time regime detection and directional bias optimization for asymmetric risk profiles
* Volume analysis uses CoinGecko's Binance exchange volume data for accurate market activity measurement
* Risk assessment combines volatility, volume, and market structure analysis
* Market regime detection uses price action, volume, and volatility patterns
* All calculations are performed using Python with pandas and numpy libraries
* Data is sourced from CryptoCompare API for price and technical indicators
* Volume data is sourced from [CoinGecko API](https://www.coingecko.com/en/api) for Binance exchange activity
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