Bitcoin Market Analysis for 2025-11-04

Summary:

Enhanced Analysis: Bitcoin Risk Assessment Report

Generated: 2025-11-04 14:27:01 Local

Yesterday's Market:
Date: 2025-11-03

  Open:  $110,564.52
  High:  $110,748.58
  Low:   $105,315.16
  Close: $106,580.38

Today's Daily Forecast:
Date: 2025-11-04

  Expected Low:  $107,230.36
  Expected High: $113,867.19

Weekly Rolling Forecast:

  Expected Low:  $94,912.83
  Expected High: $126,184.72

Technical Analysis:
  RSI (14):           50.0
  Market Regime:      Transitional
  Regime Confidence:  40.0%
  Volatility (ATR):   $3,895.22 (3.7%)
  Volume Trend:       -42.13%
  Volume (24h):       $86.17B (CoinGecko)

Daily Fibonacci Analysis (15 days):
  Focus:         Significance-based minor swings (10.0% moves)
  Swing High:    $116,395.50
  Swing Low:     $105,315.16
  Range:         $11,080.34
  Trend:         Uptrend Retracement
  Confirmation:  Confirmed (15 bars)

Daily Key Levels:
  Support:     $113,780.54 (23.6%)
  Resistance:  $116,395.50 (0%)
  Key Support: $110,855.33 (50%)

Daily Retracements:
      0.0%: $116,395.50 0.0%
     38.2%: $112,162.81 38.2%
     50.0%: $110,855.33 50.0%
     61.8%: $109,547.85 61.8%
    100.0%: $105,315.16 100.0%

Daily Extensions:
    127.2%: $102,301.31
    141.4%: $100,727.90
    161.8%: $98,467.51
    261.8%: $87,387.17

Weekly Fibonacci Analysis (60 days):
  Focus:         Significance-based major swings (19.8% moves)
  Swing High:    $126,287.29
  Swing Low:     $103,552.05
  Range:         $22,735.24
  Trend:         Uptrend Retracement
  Confirmation:  Confirmed (60 bars)

Weekly Key Levels:
  Support:     $120,921.77 (23.6%)
  Resistance:  $126,287.29 (0%)
  Key Support: $114,919.67 (50%)

Weekly Retracements:
      0.0%: $126,287.29 0.0%
     38.2%: $117,602.43 38.2%
     50.0%: $114,919.67 50.0%
     61.8%: $112,236.91 61.8%
    100.0%: $103,552.05 100.0%

Weekly Extensions:
    127.2%: $97,368.06
    141.4%: $94,139.66
    161.8%: $89,501.67
    261.8%: $66,766.43

Fibonacci Convergence Zones:
  Zone 1: $97,917.79
    Strength:    MODERATE (2 levels)
    Timeframes:  weekly & daily
    Ratios:      127.2%, 161.8%
  Zone 2: $101,514.60
    Strength:    WEAK (2 levels)
    Timeframes:  daily
    Ratios:      141.4%, 127.2%
  Zone 3: $108,051.87
    Strength:    MODERATE (2 levels)
    Timeframes:  weekly & daily
    Ratios:      78.6%, 78.6%
  Zone 4: $110,201.59
    Strength:    WEAK (2 levels)
    Timeframes:  daily
    Ratios:      61.8%, 50.0%
  Zone 5: $112,199.86
    Strength:    MODERATE (2 levels)
    Timeframes:  weekly & daily
    Ratios:      38.2%, 61.8%
  Zone 6: $114,350.10
    Strength:    MODERATE (2 levels)
    Timeframes:  weekly & daily
    Ratios:      23.6%, 50.0%
  Zone 7: $116,998.96
    Strength:    MODERATE (2 levels)
    Timeframes:  weekly & daily
    Ratios:      0.0%, 38.2%

Risk Assessment Matrix:
  Overall Risk:       MEDIUM (57/100)
  
  Component Breakdown:
    Technical Risk:   60/100
    Volatility Risk:  45/100
    Volume Risk:      80/100
    Momentum Risk:    45/100

Directional Bias Analysis:
  Primary Bias:       NEUTRAL
  Confidence:         50.0%
  
  Position Recommendations:
    LONG Positions:   MEDIUM risk
                      Max Size: 1.0% of account
    
    SHORT Positions:  HIGH risk
                      Max Size: 0.5% of account
    
    NEUTRAL Strategy: MEDIUM risk
                      Max Size: 0.8% of account

Trading Signal Breakdown:

BULLISH SIGNALS (0/7 total points):
  RSI Oversold:     0 pts
  Bullish Momentum: 0 pts  
  Support Level:    0 pts
  Volume Support:   0 pts

BEARISH SIGNALS (1/7 total points):
  RSI Overbought:   0 pts
  Bearish Momentum: 0 pts
  High Volatility:  0 pts
  Resistance Level: 0 pts
  Volume Weakness:  1 pts

Signal Scoring:
• RSI signals: 2 pts (extreme), 1 pt (moderate)
• Momentum/Volatility: 2 pts (strong), 1 pt (moderate)  
• Support/Resistance: 1 pt (near key levels)
• Volume: 1 pt (confirms direction)

📋 Risk Management Notes:
* Enhanced Fibonacci analysis with convergence zone detection
* Daily analysis focuses on 2-3% significance moves (15-day lookback)
* Weekly analysis focuses on 5-7% significance moves (60-day lookback)
* Convergence zones identify high-probability support/resistance areas
* Swing confirmation requires 2+ bar validation
* Position sizing incorporates directional bias multipliers
* Short positions capped at 50% of long position size due to unlimited risk
* Risk parameters automatically adjust based on current volatility regime

🔬 Technical Methodology:
* Fibonacci levels: Professional ratios (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%) with extensions (127.2%, 141.4%, 161.8%, 261.8%)
* Crypto-optimized RSI thresholds (oversold <20, overbought >80)
* Automatic trend context detection (uptrend/downtrend/range-bound)
* Multi-timeframe convergence analysis (1.5% price tolerance)
* Market regime classification with confidence scoring
* Extended historical data for accurate swing identification
* Analysis integrates institutional-grade swing detection with significance thresholds and confirmation requirements for reliable level identification
* Risk scores calibrated for crypto trading with real-time regime detection and directional bias optimization for asymmetric risk profiles
* Volume analysis uses CoinGecko's Binance exchange volume data for accurate market activity measurement
* Risk assessment combines volatility, volume, and market structure analysis
* Market regime detection uses price action, volume, and volatility patterns
* All calculations are performed using Python with pandas and numpy libraries
* Data is sourced from CryptoCompare API for price and technical indicators
* Volume data is sourced from [CoinGecko API](https://www.coingecko.com/en/api) for Binance exchange activity

📈 Daily Price Forecast

📅 Weekly Price Forecast