Bitcoin closed yesterday at $88,566 after testing as high as $90,551 — but once again failed to hold above the key $89,000 pivot level. This repeated rejection is telling us something important.
The Technical Picture
- RSI (14): 50.0 — Perfectly neutral
- Market Regime: Oscillating between Consolidation and Transitional (low-to-moderate confidence)
- Volatility (ATR): 3.9% (~$3,400 daily range)
- Volume: Up +202% in 24 hours — historically precedes expansion from compression
Directional bias remains neutral, with no confirmed bullish signals and only limited bearish confirmation.
Critical Levels to Watch
Support
- $85,995 — Immediate defense line (priority level)
- $83,778 — Secondary support if we break lower
- $78,000–$79,000 — Deep support zone; losing this confirms bearish structure
- $76,763 — Ultimate downside target
Resistance
- $89,000 — The pivot. Weekly close above = short-term bullish momentum
- $94,433 — Fibonacci convergence zone (decision level)
- $96,000–$103,000 — Primary resistance cluster for sustained rally
What the Data Says
Our risk assessment shows Medium overall risk (52/100), but Volume Risk is elevated at 80/100 — historically a precursor to significant moves.
Strong Fibonacci convergence at $88,689 (current price zone) suggests we’re at a decision point where multiple timeframes align.
The Scenarios
Bullish Case: We hold $85,995 and close above $89,000 — path opens to $96K+
Bearish Case: $85,995 breaks — accelerated selling toward $78K–$79K
Bottom Line
The next 48 hours matter. Price compression combined with rising volume typically precedes expansion. The direction remains the question mark.
Which level are you watching most closely? Drop your thoughts in the comments below.
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