Summary:
Enhanced Analysis: Bitcoin Risk Assessment Report
Generated: 2025-12-06 14:27:02 Local
Yesterday's Market:
Date: 2025-12-05
Open: $92,106.94
High: $92,717.53
Low: $88,116.59
Close: $89,352.03
Today's Daily Forecast:
Date: 2025-12-06
Expected Low: $88,538.49
Expected High: $94,726.56
Weekly Rolling Forecast:
Expected Low: $78,213.81
Expected High: $105,051.25
Technical Analysis:
RSI (14): 50.0
Market Regime: Transitional
Regime Confidence: 40.0%
Volatility (ATR): $4,346.44 (4.9%)
Volume Trend: -78.41%
Volume (24h): $42.94B (CoinGecko)
Daily Fibonacci Analysis (15 days):
Focus: Significance-based minor swings (15.6% moves)
Swing High: $94,192.91
Swing Low: $80,562.05
Range: $13,630.86
Trend: Downtrend Retracement
Confirmation: Confirmed (15 bars)
Daily Key Levels:
Support: $83,778.93 (23.6%)
Resistance: $80,562.05 (0%)
Key Support: $87,377.48 (50%)
Daily Retracements:
0.0%: $80,562.05 0.0%
38.2%: $85,769.04 38.2%
50.0%: $87,377.48 50.0%
61.8%: $88,985.92 61.8%
100.0%: $94,192.91 100.0%
Daily Extensions:
127.2%: $97,900.50
141.4%: $99,836.09
161.8%: $102,616.78
261.8%: $116,247.64
Weekly Fibonacci Analysis (60 days):
Focus: Significance-based major swings (43.4% moves)
Swing High: $125,225.23
Swing Low: $80,562.05
Range: $44,663.18
Trend: Uptrend Retracement
Confirmation: Confirmed (60 bars)
Weekly Key Levels:
Support: $114,684.72 (23.6%)
Resistance: $125,225.23 (0%)
Key Support: $102,893.64 (50%)
Weekly Retracements:
0.0%: $125,225.23 0.0%
38.2%: $108,163.90 38.2%
50.0%: $102,893.64 50.0%
61.8%: $97,623.38 61.8%
100.0%: $80,562.05 100.0%
Weekly Extensions:
127.2%: $68,413.67
141.4%: $62,071.49
161.8%: $52,960.20
261.8%: $8,297.02
Fibonacci Convergence Zones:
Zone 1: $80,562.05
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: daily & weekly
Ratios: 0.0%, 100.0%
Zone 2: $89,552.95
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: daily & weekly
Ratios: 61.8%, 78.6%
Zone 3: $97,761.94
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: daily & weekly
Ratios: 61.8%, 127.2%
Zone 4: $102,755.21
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: daily & weekly
Ratios: 161.8%, 50.0%
Risk Assessment Matrix:
Overall Risk: MEDIUM (61/100)
Component Breakdown:
Technical Risk: 60/100
Volatility Risk: 60/100
Volume Risk: 60/100
Momentum Risk: 65/100
Directional Bias Analysis:
Primary Bias: NEUTRAL
Confidence: 50.0%
Position Recommendations:
LONG Positions: MEDIUM risk
Max Size: 1.0% of account
SHORT Positions: HIGH risk
Max Size: 0.2% of account
NEUTRAL Strategy: MEDIUM risk
Max Size: 0.8% of account
Trading Signal Breakdown:
BULLISH SIGNALS (0/7 total points):
RSI Oversold: 0 pts
Bullish Momentum: 0 pts
Support Level: 0 pts
Volume Support: 0 pts
BEARISH SIGNALS (0/7 total points):
RSI Overbought: 0 pts
Bearish Momentum: 0 pts
High Volatility: 0 pts
Resistance Level: 0 pts
Volume Weakness: 0 pts
Signal Scoring:
• RSI signals: 2 pts (extreme), 1 pt (moderate)
• Momentum/Volatility: 2 pts (strong), 1 pt (moderate)
• Support/Resistance: 1 pt (near key levels)
• Volume: 1 pt (confirms direction)
📋 Risk Management Notes:
* Enhanced Fibonacci analysis with convergence zone detection
* Daily analysis focuses on 2-3% significance moves (15-day lookback)
* Weekly analysis focuses on 5-7% significance moves (60-day lookback)
* Convergence zones identify high-probability support/resistance areas
* Swing confirmation requires 2+ bar validation
* Position sizing incorporates directional bias multipliers
* Short positions capped at 50% of long position size due to unlimited risk
* Risk parameters automatically adjust based on current volatility regime
🔬 Technical Methodology:
* Fibonacci levels: Professional ratios (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%) with extensions (127.2%, 141.4%, 161.8%, 261.8%)
* Crypto-optimized RSI thresholds (oversold <20, overbought >80)
* Automatic trend context detection (uptrend/downtrend/range-bound)
* Multi-timeframe convergence analysis (1.5% price tolerance)
* Market regime classification with confidence scoring
* Extended historical data for accurate swing identification
* Analysis integrates institutional-grade swing detection with significance thresholds and confirmation requirements for reliable level identification
* Risk scores calibrated for crypto trading with real-time regime detection and directional bias optimization for asymmetric risk profiles
* Volume analysis uses CoinGecko's Binance exchange volume data for accurate market activity measurement
* Risk assessment combines volatility, volume, and market structure analysis
* Market regime detection uses price action, volume, and volatility patterns
* All calculations are performed using Python with pandas and numpy libraries
* Data is sourced from CryptoCompare API for price and technical indicators
* Volume data is sourced from [CoinGecko API](https://www.coingecko.com/en/api) for Binance exchange activity
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