Bitcoin Market Analysis for 2025-12-05

Summary:

Enhanced Analysis: Bitcoin Risk Assessment Report

Generated: 2025-12-05 14:27:01 Local

Yesterday's Market:
Date: 2025-12-04

  Open:  $93,464.62
  High:  $94,089.06
  Low:   $90,913.17
  Close: $92,106.94

Today's Daily Forecast:
Date: 2025-12-05

  Expected Low:  $89,198.25
  Expected High: $95,703.12

Weekly Rolling Forecast:

  Expected Low:  $78,860.60
  Expected High: $106,040.78

Technical Analysis:
  RSI (14):           50.0
  Market Regime:      Transitional
  Regime Confidence:  40.0%
  Volatility (ATR):   $4,271.26 (4.6%)
  Volume Trend:       +82.41%
  Volume (24h):       $45.04B (CoinGecko)

Daily Fibonacci Analysis (15 days):
  Focus:         Significance-based minor swings (15.6% moves)
  Swing High:    $94,192.91
  Swing Low:     $80,562.05
  Range:         $13,630.86
  Trend:         Downtrend Retracement
  Confirmation:  Confirmed (15 bars)

Daily Key Levels:
  Support:     $83,778.93 (23.6%)
  Resistance:  $80,562.05 (0%)
  Key Support: $87,377.48 (50%)

Daily Retracements:
      0.0%: $80,562.05 0.0%
     38.2%: $85,769.04 38.2%
     50.0%: $87,377.48 50.0%
     61.8%: $88,985.92 61.8%
    100.0%: $94,192.91 100.0%

Daily Extensions:
    127.2%: $97,900.50
    141.4%: $99,836.09
    161.8%: $102,616.78
    261.8%: $116,247.64

Weekly Fibonacci Analysis (60 days):
  Focus:         Significance-based major swings (44.2% moves)
  Swing High:    $126,287.29
  Swing Low:     $80,562.05
  Range:         $45,725.24
  Trend:         Uptrend Retracement
  Confirmation:  Confirmed (60 bars)

Weekly Key Levels:
  Support:     $115,496.13 (23.6%)
  Resistance:  $126,287.29 (0%)
  Key Support: $103,424.67 (50%)

Weekly Retracements:
      0.0%: $126,287.29 0.0%
     38.2%: $108,820.25 38.2%
     50.0%: $103,424.67 50.0%
     61.8%: $98,029.09 61.8%
    100.0%: $80,562.05 100.0%

Weekly Extensions:
    127.2%: $68,124.78
    141.4%: $61,631.80
    161.8%: $52,303.85
    261.8%: $6,578.61

Fibonacci Convergence Zones:
  Zone 1: $80,562.05
    Strength:    MODERATE (2 levels)
    Timeframes:  daily & weekly
    Ratios:      0.0%, 100.0%
  Zone 2: $89,666.59
    Strength:    MODERATE (2 levels)
    Timeframes:  daily & weekly
    Ratios:      61.8%, 78.6%
  Zone 3: $97,964.80
    Strength:    MODERATE (2 levels)
    Timeframes:  daily & weekly
    Ratios:      127.2%, 61.8%
  Zone 4: $103,020.73
    Strength:    MODERATE (2 levels)
    Timeframes:  daily & weekly
    Ratios:      161.8%, 50.0%
  Zone 5: $115,871.89
    Strength:    MODERATE (2 levels)
    Timeframes:  daily & weekly
    Ratios:      23.6%, 261.8%

Risk Assessment Matrix:
  Overall Risk:       MEDIUM (61/100)
  
  Component Breakdown:
    Technical Risk:   60/100
    Volatility Risk:  60/100
    Volume Risk:      60/100
    Momentum Risk:    65/100

Directional Bias Analysis:
  Primary Bias:       NEUTRAL
  Confidence:         50.0%
  
  Position Recommendations:
    LONG Positions:   MEDIUM risk
                      Max Size: 1.0% of account
    
    SHORT Positions:  HIGH risk
                      Max Size: 0.2% of account
    
    NEUTRAL Strategy: MEDIUM risk
                      Max Size: 0.8% of account

Trading Signal Breakdown:

BULLISH SIGNALS (0/7 total points):
  RSI Oversold:     0 pts
  Bullish Momentum: 0 pts  
  Support Level:    0 pts
  Volume Support:   0 pts

BEARISH SIGNALS (0/7 total points):
  RSI Overbought:   0 pts
  Bearish Momentum: 0 pts
  High Volatility:  0 pts
  Resistance Level: 0 pts
  Volume Weakness:  0 pts

Signal Scoring:
• RSI signals: 2 pts (extreme), 1 pt (moderate)
• Momentum/Volatility: 2 pts (strong), 1 pt (moderate)  
• Support/Resistance: 1 pt (near key levels)
• Volume: 1 pt (confirms direction)

📋 Risk Management Notes:
* Enhanced Fibonacci analysis with convergence zone detection
* Daily analysis focuses on 2-3% significance moves (15-day lookback)
* Weekly analysis focuses on 5-7% significance moves (60-day lookback)
* Convergence zones identify high-probability support/resistance areas
* Swing confirmation requires 2+ bar validation
* Position sizing incorporates directional bias multipliers
* Short positions capped at 50% of long position size due to unlimited risk
* Risk parameters automatically adjust based on current volatility regime

🔬 Technical Methodology:
* Fibonacci levels: Professional ratios (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%) with extensions (127.2%, 141.4%, 161.8%, 261.8%)
* Crypto-optimized RSI thresholds (oversold <20, overbought >80)
* Automatic trend context detection (uptrend/downtrend/range-bound)
* Multi-timeframe convergence analysis (1.5% price tolerance)
* Market regime classification with confidence scoring
* Extended historical data for accurate swing identification
* Analysis integrates institutional-grade swing detection with significance thresholds and confirmation requirements for reliable level identification
* Risk scores calibrated for crypto trading with real-time regime detection and directional bias optimization for asymmetric risk profiles
* Volume analysis uses CoinGecko's Binance exchange volume data for accurate market activity measurement
* Risk assessment combines volatility, volume, and market structure analysis
* Market regime detection uses price action, volume, and volatility patterns
* All calculations are performed using Python with pandas and numpy libraries
* Data is sourced from CryptoCompare API for price and technical indicators
* Volume data is sourced from [CoinGecko API](https://www.coingecko.com/en/api) for Binance exchange activity

📈 Daily Price Forecast

📅 Weekly Price Forecast