Summary:
Enhanced Analysis: Bitcoin Risk Assessment Report
Generated: 2025-11-21 14:27:01 Local
Yesterday's Market:
Date: 2025-11-20
Open: $91,483.02
High: $93,082.73
Low: $86,019.03
Close: $86,553.58
Today's Daily Forecast:
Date: 2025-11-21
Expected Low: $86,602.39
Expected High: $95,703.12
Weekly Rolling Forecast:
Expected Low: $76,475.04
Expected High: $105,830.48
Technical Analysis:
RSI (14): 50.0
Market Regime: Transitional
Regime Confidence: 40.0%
Volatility (ATR): $5,306.08 (6.1%)
Volume Trend: +33.29%
Volume (24h): $142.99B (CoinGecko)
Daily Fibonacci Analysis (15 days):
Focus: Significance-based minor swings (22.2% moves)
Swing High: $107,489.75
Swing Low: $86,019.03
Range: $21,470.72
Trend: Uptrend Retracement
Confirmation: Confirmed (15 bars)
Daily Key Levels:
Support: $102,422.66 (23.6%)
Resistance: $107,489.75 (0%)
Key Support: $96,754.39 (50%)
Daily Retracements:
0.0%: $107,489.75 0.0%
38.2%: $99,287.93 38.2%
50.0%: $96,754.39 50.0%
61.8%: $94,220.85 61.8%
100.0%: $86,019.03 100.0%
Daily Extensions:
127.2%: $80,178.99
141.4%: $77,130.15
161.8%: $72,750.13
261.8%: $51,279.41
Weekly Fibonacci Analysis (60 days):
Focus: Significance-based major swings (37.9% moves)
Swing High: $126,287.29
Swing Low: $86,019.03
Range: $40,268.26
Trend: Uptrend Retracement
Confirmation: Confirmed (60 bars)
Weekly Key Levels:
Support: $116,783.98 (23.6%)
Resistance: $126,287.29 (0%)
Key Support: $106,153.16 (50%)
Weekly Retracements:
0.0%: $126,287.29 0.0%
38.2%: $110,904.81 38.2%
50.0%: $106,153.16 50.0%
61.8%: $101,401.51 61.8%
100.0%: $86,019.03 100.0%
Weekly Extensions:
127.2%: $75,066.06
141.4%: $69,347.97
161.8%: $61,133.25
261.8%: $20,864.99
Fibonacci Convergence Zones:
Zone 1: $86,019.03
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: weekly & daily
Ratios: 100.0%, 100.0%
Zone 2: $94,428.64
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: weekly & daily
Ratios: 61.8%, 78.6%
Zone 3: $101,912.08
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: weekly & daily
Ratios: 61.8%, 23.6%
Risk Assessment Matrix:
Overall Risk: MEDIUM (63/100)
Component Breakdown:
Technical Risk: 60/100
Volatility Risk: 81/100
Volume Risk: 80/100
Momentum Risk: 30/100
Directional Bias Analysis:
Primary Bias: NEUTRAL
Confidence: 50.0%
Position Recommendations:
LONG Positions: MEDIUM risk
Max Size: 1.0% of account
SHORT Positions: HIGH risk
Max Size: 0.2% of account
NEUTRAL Strategy: MEDIUM risk
Max Size: 0.8% of account
Trading Signal Breakdown:
BULLISH SIGNALS (0/7 total points):
RSI Oversold: 0 pts
Bullish Momentum: 0 pts
Support Level: 0 pts
Volume Support: 0 pts
BEARISH SIGNALS (1/7 total points):
RSI Overbought: 0 pts
Bearish Momentum: 0 pts
High Volatility: 0 pts
Resistance Level: 0 pts
Volume Weakness: 1 pts
Signal Scoring:
• RSI signals: 2 pts (extreme), 1 pt (moderate)
• Momentum/Volatility: 2 pts (strong), 1 pt (moderate)
• Support/Resistance: 1 pt (near key levels)
• Volume: 1 pt (confirms direction)
📋 Risk Management Notes:
* Enhanced Fibonacci analysis with convergence zone detection
* Daily analysis focuses on 2-3% significance moves (15-day lookback)
* Weekly analysis focuses on 5-7% significance moves (60-day lookback)
* Convergence zones identify high-probability support/resistance areas
* Swing confirmation requires 2+ bar validation
* Position sizing incorporates directional bias multipliers
* Short positions capped at 50% of long position size due to unlimited risk
* Risk parameters automatically adjust based on current volatility regime
🔬 Technical Methodology:
* Fibonacci levels: Professional ratios (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%) with extensions (127.2%, 141.4%, 161.8%, 261.8%)
* Crypto-optimized RSI thresholds (oversold <20, overbought >80)
* Automatic trend context detection (uptrend/downtrend/range-bound)
* Multi-timeframe convergence analysis (1.5% price tolerance)
* Market regime classification with confidence scoring
* Extended historical data for accurate swing identification
* Analysis integrates institutional-grade swing detection with significance thresholds and confirmation requirements for reliable level identification
* Risk scores calibrated for crypto trading with real-time regime detection and directional bias optimization for asymmetric risk profiles
* Volume analysis uses CoinGecko's Binance exchange volume data for accurate market activity measurement
* Risk assessment combines volatility, volume, and market structure analysis
* Market regime detection uses price action, volume, and volatility patterns
* All calculations are performed using Python with pandas and numpy libraries
* Data is sourced from CryptoCompare API for price and technical indicators
* Volume data is sourced from [CoinGecko API](https://www.coingecko.com/en/api) for Binance exchange activity
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