Summary:
Enhanced Analysis: Bitcoin Risk Assessment Report
Generated: 2025-11-14 14:27:01 Local
Yesterday's Market:
Date: 2025-11-13
Open: $101,660.22
High: $104,048.87
Low: $97,956.87
Close: $99,644.14
Today's Daily Forecast:
Date: 2025-11-14
Expected Low: $97,448.55
Expected High: $107,421.88
Weekly Rolling Forecast:
Expected Low: $85,944.89
Expected High: $118,925.53
Technical Analysis:
RSI (14): 50.0
Market Regime: Transitional
Regime Confidence: 40.0%
Volatility (ATR): $5,491.47 (5.5%)
Volume Trend: -16.89%
Volume (24h): $128.51B (CoinGecko)
Daily Fibonacci Analysis (15 days):
Focus: Significance-based minor swings (13.0% moves)
Swing High: $111,617.77
Swing Low: $97,956.87
Range: $13,660.90
Trend: Uptrend Retracement
Confirmation: Confirmed (15 bars)
Daily Key Levels:
Support: $108,393.80 (23.6%)
Resistance: $111,617.77 (0%)
Key Support: $104,787.32 (50%)
Daily Retracements:
0.0%: $111,617.77 0.0%
38.2%: $106,399.31 38.2%
50.0%: $104,787.32 50.0%
61.8%: $103,175.33 61.8%
100.0%: $97,956.87 100.0%
Daily Extensions:
127.2%: $94,241.11
141.4%: $92,301.26
161.8%: $89,514.43
261.8%: $75,853.53
Weekly Fibonacci Analysis (60 days):
Focus: Significance-based major swings (25.3% moves)
Swing High: $126,287.29
Swing Low: $97,956.87
Range: $28,330.42
Trend: Uptrend Retracement
Confirmation: Confirmed (60 bars)
Weekly Key Levels:
Support: $119,601.31 (23.6%)
Resistance: $126,287.29 (0%)
Key Support: $112,122.08 (50%)
Weekly Retracements:
0.0%: $126,287.29 0.0%
38.2%: $115,465.07 38.2%
50.0%: $112,122.08 50.0%
61.8%: $108,779.09 61.8%
100.0%: $97,956.87 100.0%
Weekly Extensions:
127.2%: $90,251.00
141.4%: $86,228.08
161.8%: $80,448.67
261.8%: $52,118.25
Fibonacci Convergence Zones:
Zone 1: $89,882.71
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: weekly & daily
Ratios: 161.8%, 127.2%
Zone 2: $97,956.87
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: weekly & daily
Ratios: 100.0%, 100.0%
Zone 3: $103,597.46
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: weekly & daily
Ratios: 61.8%, 78.6%
Zone 4: $108,586.44
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: weekly & daily
Ratios: 23.6%, 61.8%
Zone 5: $111,869.92
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: weekly & daily
Ratios: 0.0%, 50.0%
Risk Assessment Matrix:
Overall Risk: MEDIUM (54/100)
Component Breakdown:
Technical Risk: 60/100
Volatility Risk: 60/100
Volume Risk: 25/100
Momentum Risk: 65/100
Directional Bias Analysis:
Primary Bias: NEUTRAL
Confidence: 50.0%
Position Recommendations:
LONG Positions: MEDIUM risk
Max Size: 1.0% of account
SHORT Positions: MEDIUM risk
Max Size: 0.5% of account
NEUTRAL Strategy: MEDIUM risk
Max Size: 1.5% of account
Trading Signal Breakdown:
BULLISH SIGNALS (1/7 total points):
RSI Oversold: 0 pts
Bullish Momentum: 0 pts
Support Level: 0 pts
Volume Support: 1 pts
BEARISH SIGNALS (0/7 total points):
RSI Overbought: 0 pts
Bearish Momentum: 0 pts
High Volatility: 0 pts
Resistance Level: 0 pts
Volume Weakness: 0 pts
Signal Scoring:
• RSI signals: 2 pts (extreme), 1 pt (moderate)
• Momentum/Volatility: 2 pts (strong), 1 pt (moderate)
• Support/Resistance: 1 pt (near key levels)
• Volume: 1 pt (confirms direction)
📋 Risk Management Notes:
* Enhanced Fibonacci analysis with convergence zone detection
* Daily analysis focuses on 2-3% significance moves (15-day lookback)
* Weekly analysis focuses on 5-7% significance moves (60-day lookback)
* Convergence zones identify high-probability support/resistance areas
* Swing confirmation requires 2+ bar validation
* Position sizing incorporates directional bias multipliers
* Short positions capped at 50% of long position size due to unlimited risk
* Risk parameters automatically adjust based on current volatility regime
🔬 Technical Methodology:
* Fibonacci levels: Professional ratios (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%) with extensions (127.2%, 141.4%, 161.8%, 261.8%)
* Crypto-optimized RSI thresholds (oversold <20, overbought >80)
* Automatic trend context detection (uptrend/downtrend/range-bound)
* Multi-timeframe convergence analysis (1.5% price tolerance)
* Market regime classification with confidence scoring
* Extended historical data for accurate swing identification
* Analysis integrates institutional-grade swing detection with significance thresholds and confirmation requirements for reliable level identification
* Risk scores calibrated for crypto trading with real-time regime detection and directional bias optimization for asymmetric risk profiles
* Volume analysis uses CoinGecko's Binance exchange volume data for accurate market activity measurement
* Risk assessment combines volatility, volume, and market structure analysis
* Market regime detection uses price action, volume, and volatility patterns
* All calculations are performed using Python with pandas and numpy libraries
* Data is sourced from CryptoCompare API for price and technical indicators
* Volume data is sourced from [CoinGecko API](https://www.coingecko.com/en/api) for Binance exchange activity
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