Bitcoin Market Analysis for 2025-08-04

Enhanced Analysis: Bitcoin Risk Assessment Report

Generated: 2025-08-04 14:27:01 Local

Yesterday's Market:
Date: 2025-08-03

  Open:  $118,808.78
  High:  $119,555.88
  Low:   $117,214.42
  Close: $118,397.33

Today's Daily Forecast:
Date: 2025-08-04

  Expected Low:  $110,082.01
  Expected High: $114,257.81

Weekly Rolling Forecast:

  Expected Low:  $97,465.70
  Expected High: $126,874.12

Technical Analysis:
  RSI (14):           50.0
  Market Regime:      Transitional
  Regime Confidence:  40.0%
  Volatility (ATR):   $2,644.59 (2.3%)
  Volume Trend:       +3.51%
  Volume (24h):       $27.20B (CoinGecko)

Daily Fibonacci Analysis (15 days):
  Focus:         Significance-based minor swings (7.2% moves)
  Swing High:    $120,298.65
  Swing Low:     $111,925.95
  Range:         $8,372.70
  Trend:         Uptrend Retracement
  Confirmation:  Confirmed (15 bars)

Daily Key Levels:
  Support:     $118,322.69 (23.6%)
  Resistance:  $120,298.65 (0%)
  Key Support: $116,112.30 (50%)

Daily Retracements:
      0.0%: $120,298.65 0.0%
     38.2%: $117,100.28 38.2%
     50.0%: $116,112.30 50.0%
     61.8%: $115,124.32 61.8%
    100.0%: $111,925.95 100.0%

Daily Extensions:
    127.2%: $109,648.58
    141.4%: $108,459.65
    161.8%: $106,751.62
    261.8%: $98,378.92

Weekly Fibonacci Analysis (60 days):
  Focus:         Significance-based major swings (22.5% moves)
  Swing High:    $123,220.28
  Swing Low:     $98,264.46
  Range:         $24,955.82
  Trend:         Downtrend Retracement
  Confirmation:  Confirmed (60 bars)

Weekly Key Levels:
  Support:     $104,154.03 (23.6%)
  Resistance:  $98,264.46 (0%)
  Key Support: $110,742.37 (50%)

Weekly Retracements:
      0.0%: $98,264.46 0.0%
     38.2%: $107,797.58 38.2%
     50.0%: $110,742.37 50.0%
     61.8%: $113,687.16 61.8%
    100.0%: $123,220.28 100.0%

Weekly Extensions:
    127.2%: $130,008.26
    141.4%: $133,551.99
    161.8%: $138,642.98
    261.8%: $163,598.80

Fibonacci Convergence Zones:
  Zone 1: $98,321.69
    Strength:    MODERATE (2 levels)
    Timeframes:  daily & weekly
    Ratios:      0.0%, 261.8%
  Zone 2: $107,669.62
    Strength:    STRONG (3 levels)
    Timeframes:  daily & weekly
    Ratios:      161.8%, 38.2%, 141.4%
  Zone 3: $110,195.47
    Strength:    MODERATE (2 levels)
    Timeframes:  daily & weekly
    Ratios:      127.2%, 50.0%
  Zone 4: $114,176.40
    Strength:    STRONG (3 levels)
    Timeframes:  daily & weekly
    Ratios:      61.8%, 78.6%, 61.8%
  Zone 5: $116,606.29
    Strength:    WEAK (2 levels)
    Timeframes:  daily
    Ratios:      50.0%, 38.2%
  Zone 6: $118,101.21
    Strength:    MODERATE (2 levels)
    Timeframes:  daily & weekly
    Ratios:      78.6%, 23.6%

Risk Assessment Matrix:
  Overall Risk:       MEDIUM (57/100)
  
  Component Breakdown:
    Technical Risk:   60/100
    Volatility Risk:  45/100
    Volume Risk:      60/100
    Momentum Risk:    65/100

Directional Bias Analysis:
  Primary Bias:       NEUTRAL
  Confidence:         50.0%
  
  Position Recommendations:
    LONG Positions:   MEDIUM risk
                      Max Size: 1.0% of account
    
    SHORT Positions:  HIGH risk
                      Max Size: 0.5% of account
    
    NEUTRAL Strategy: MEDIUM risk
                      Max Size: 0.8% of account

Trading Signal Breakdown:

BULLISH SIGNALS (0/7 total points):
  RSI Oversold:     0 pts
  Bullish Momentum: 0 pts  
  Support Level:    0 pts
  Volume Support:   0 pts

BEARISH SIGNALS (0/7 total points):
  RSI Overbought:   0 pts
  Bearish Momentum: 0 pts
  High Volatility:  0 pts
  Resistance Level: 0 pts
  Volume Weakness:  0 pts

Signal Scoring:
• RSI signals: 2 pts (extreme), 1 pt (moderate)
• Momentum/Volatility: 2 pts (strong), 1 pt (moderate)  
• Support/Resistance: 1 pt (near key levels)
• Volume: 1 pt (confirms direction)

📊 See also: More BTC Forecasts | Risk Analysis Reports | Technical Analysis

📈 Daily Price Forecast

📅 Weekly Price Forecast

📋 Risk Management Notes:
* Enhanced Fibonacci analysis with convergence zone detection
* Daily analysis focuses on 2-3% significance moves (15-day lookback)
* Weekly analysis focuses on 5-7% significance moves (60-day lookback)
* Convergence zones identify high-probability support/resistance areas
* Swing confirmation requires 2+ bar validation
* Position sizing incorporates directional bias multipliers
* Short positions capped at 50% of long position size due to unlimited risk
* Risk parameters automatically adjust based on current volatility regime

🔬 Technical Methodology:
* Fibonacci levels: Professional ratios (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%) with extensions (127.2%, 141.4%, 161.8%, 261.8%)
* Crypto-optimized RSI thresholds (oversold <20, overbought >80)
* Automatic trend context detection (uptrend/downtrend/range-bound)
* Multi-timeframe convergence analysis (1.5% price tolerance)
* Market regime classification with confidence scoring
* Extended historical data for accurate swing identification
* Analysis integrates institutional-grade swing detection with significance thresholds and confirmation requirements for reliable level identification
* Risk scores calibrated for crypto trading with real-time regime detection and directional bias optimization for asymmetric risk profiles
* Volume analysis uses CoinGecko's Binance exchange volume data for accurate market activity measurement
* Risk assessment combines volatility, volume, and market structure analysis
* Market regime detection uses price action, volume, and volatility patterns
* All calculations are performed using Python with pandas and numpy libraries
* Data is sourced from CryptoCompare API for price and technical indicators
* Volume data is sourced from [CoinGecko API](https://www.coingecko.com/en/api) for Binance exchange activity

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The information herein is derived from third-party data sources believed to be reliable, but we make no representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. We disclaim all liability for any loss, damage, or adverse consequences arising from reliance on this information or analysis. Data may contain errors, omissions, or delays. All calculations, projections, and risk assessments are provided as-is without warranty of any kind. Market conditions can change rapidly and unpredictably. Always conduct your own independent research and due diligence, and consult with qualified financial professionals before making any investment decisions. Use of this information is at your own risk and discretion.