Bitcoin ARIMA 7-Day Forecast 1-23-24

Crypto Rover has been talking about the $39,700 level for Bitcoin for a while now.

While I like to give him a bit of a bad time on Twitter because of some of his higher Bitcoin price targets, I'm glad he sees both sides of the equation.

To be fair, forecasting the Bitcoin price, given its volatility is difficult. The Bitcoin ARIMA 7-Day Forecast demonstrates this. Admittedly, it could be a more refined model but, given my needs and the other tools and techniques at my disposal, it is good enough.

As I have noted previously, the 7-day forecast range on this model is very wide. However, it has narrowed from over $11,000 spread to less than $10,000 over the past four days. What this means isn't exactly clear, but my suspicion is this range narrows as the price grinds down to whatever the ultimate interim low is, then widens again when the price begins to spike higher.

The Bitcoin price has now dipped significantly below the Prophet Forecast Channel.

Back on January 3rd, I had warned that the lower Bollinger Band rising above the Prophet Forecast line typically results in a significant price drop.

Now the Bitcoin price has reached $39,200 as I discussed previously.

So, despite what the Bitcoin bag pumpers claimed about the BTC ETF pushing the price to the moon, cycles, and gravity always win. Clearly, short of some dramatic change, the trend is higher. However, it is normal and healthy for the market to pull back before taking another higher. It would be unsurprising if the Bitcoin price dropped 15% to 20% from its recent high price of $48,969.37 to $39,200 or below.

What will be interesting going forward is seeing if and where the Bitcoin price touches the lower Bollinger Band which will be a pretty good sign that the price has bottomed.