Bitcoin ARIMA 7-Day Forecast 1-17-2024

You can file this under "No One Knows What the Bitcoin Price Will be in 7 Days".

But, seriously, you can forecast the Bitcoin price with a 95% confidence level. However, to do so, you have to use a very wide range that spans more than $10,000.

If we want to narrow the price range we can look at the chart below. The recent daily high price of Bitcoin is bracketed by the $46,963 to $47,213 zone. The recent lows are bracketed by the $40,213 to $40,463 zone. That gives us a $40,213 to $47,213 price range for Bitcoin that ought to be within 70% to 80% confidence on a daily closing basis.

As an aside, the bottom of the 20-period lower Bollinger Band fell outside of the Prophet Forecast channel. However, the upper Bollinger Band is still within the Prophet Forecast channel. If the upper Bollinger Band exits the top of the forecast channel, and the lower band remains below it, that would indicate the Bitcoin price is potentially nearing a low.

For now, the Bitcoin price appears to be trading within widening Bollinger Bands, hinting at the potential for increased price volatility. Our 7-Day Bitcoin ARIMA Forecast shows a very wide trading range from below $38,000 to above $48,000 with 95% confidence If we consider our price resistance zones we can narrow that range to $40,213 to $47,213 with closer to 70% to 80% confidence. Just remember, if you decide to attempt to predict the Bitcoin price, prepare for everyone on the Internet to call you stupid.