Enhanced Analysis: Bitcoin Risk Assessment Report
Generated: 2025-10-04 14:27:02 Local
Yesterday's Market:
Date: 2025-10-03
Open: $112,747.85
High: $113,372.59
Low: $111,518.32
Close: $112,043.66
Today's Daily Forecast:
Date: 2025-10-04
Expected Low: $117,151.46
Expected High: $122,070.31
Weekly Rolling Forecast:
Expected Low: $103,786.26
Expected High: $135,435.51
Technical Analysis:
RSI (14): 50.0
Market Regime: Bullish Momentum
Regime Confidence: 58.8%
Volatility (ATR): $3,040.13 (2.5%)
Volume Trend: +93.38%
Volume (24h): $68.25B (CoinGecko)
Daily Fibonacci Analysis (15 days):
Focus: Significance-based minor swings (13.2% moves)
Swing High: $123,996.37
Swing Low: $108,664.26
Range: $15,332.11
Trend: Downtrend Retracement
Confirmation: Confirmed (15 bars)
Daily Key Levels:
Support: $112,282.64 (23.6%)
Resistance: $108,664.26 (0%)
Key Support: $116,330.32 (50%)
Daily Retracements:
0.0%: $108,664.26 0.0%
38.2%: $114,521.13 38.2%
50.0%: $116,330.32 50.0%
61.8%: $118,139.50 61.8%
100.0%: $123,996.37 100.0%
Daily Extensions:
127.2%: $128,166.70
141.4%: $130,343.86
161.8%: $133,471.61
261.8%: $148,803.72
Weekly Fibonacci Analysis (60 days):
Focus: Significance-based major swings (14.9% moves)
Swing High: $124,532.70
Swing Low: $107,271.39
Range: $17,261.31
Trend: Uptrend Retracement
Confirmation: Confirmed (60 bars)
Weekly Key Levels:
Support: $120,459.03 (23.6%)
Resistance: $124,532.70 (0%)
Key Support: $115,902.04 (50%)
Weekly Retracements:
0.0%: $124,532.70 0.0%
38.2%: $117,938.88 38.2%
50.0%: $115,902.04 50.0%
61.8%: $113,865.21 61.8%
100.0%: $107,271.39 100.0%
Weekly Extensions:
127.2%: $102,576.31
141.4%: $100,125.21
161.8%: $96,603.90
261.8%: $79,342.59
Fibonacci Convergence Zones:
Zone 1: $107,967.82
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: daily & weekly
Ratios: 100.0%, 0.0%
Zone 2: $111,623.97
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: daily & weekly
Ratios: 78.6%, 23.6%
Zone 3: $114,193.17
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: daily & weekly
Ratios: 61.8%, 38.2%
Zone 4: $116,116.18
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: daily & weekly
Ratios: 50.0%, 50.0%
Zone 5: $118,039.19
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: daily & weekly
Ratios: 38.2%, 61.8%
Zone 6: $120,587.16
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: daily & weekly
Ratios: 23.6%, 78.6%
Zone 7: $124,264.54
Strength: MODERATE (2 levels)
Timeframes: daily & weekly
Ratios: 100.0%, 0.0%
Risk Assessment Matrix:
Overall Risk: MEDIUM (35/100)
Component Breakdown:
Technical Risk: 60/100
Volatility Risk: 45/100
Volume Risk: 25/100
Momentum Risk: 30/100
Directional Bias Analysis:
Primary Bias: BULLISH
Confidence: 50.0%
Position Recommendations:
LONG Positions: LOW risk
Max Size: 3.0% of account
SHORT Positions: MEDIUM risk
Max Size: 0.5% of account
NEUTRAL Strategy: LOW risk
Max Size: 1.5% of account
Trading Signal Breakdown:
BULLISH SIGNALS (3/7 total points):
RSI Oversold: 0 pts
Bullish Momentum: 2 pts
Support Level: 0 pts
Volume Support: 1 pts
BEARISH SIGNALS (0/7 total points):
RSI Overbought: 0 pts
Bearish Momentum: 0 pts
High Volatility: 0 pts
Resistance Level: 0 pts
Volume Weakness: 0 pts
Signal Scoring:
• RSI signals: 2 pts (extreme), 1 pt (moderate)
• Momentum/Volatility: 2 pts (strong), 1 pt (moderate)
• Support/Resistance: 1 pt (near key levels)
• Volume: 1 pt (confirms direction)
📊 See also: More BTC Forecasts | Risk Analysis Reports | Technical Analysis
📈 Daily Price Forecast
📅 Weekly Price Forecast
📋 Risk Management Notes: * Enhanced Fibonacci analysis with convergence zone detection * Daily analysis focuses on 2-3% significance moves (15-day lookback) * Weekly analysis focuses on 5-7% significance moves (60-day lookback) * Convergence zones identify high-probability support/resistance areas * Swing confirmation requires 2+ bar validation * Position sizing incorporates directional bias multipliers * Short positions capped at 50% of long position size due to unlimited risk * Risk parameters automatically adjust based on current volatility regime 🔬 Technical Methodology: * Fibonacci levels: Professional ratios (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%) with extensions (127.2%, 141.4%, 161.8%, 261.8%) * Crypto-optimized RSI thresholds (oversold <20, overbought >80) * Automatic trend context detection (uptrend/downtrend/range-bound) * Multi-timeframe convergence analysis (1.5% price tolerance) * Market regime classification with confidence scoring * Extended historical data for accurate swing identification * Analysis integrates institutional-grade swing detection with significance thresholds and confirmation requirements for reliable level identification * Risk scores calibrated for crypto trading with real-time regime detection and directional bias optimization for asymmetric risk profiles * Volume analysis uses CoinGecko's Binance exchange volume data for accurate market activity measurement * Risk assessment combines volatility, volume, and market structure analysis * Market regime detection uses price action, volume, and volatility patterns * All calculations are performed using Python with pandas and numpy libraries * Data is sourced from CryptoCompare API for price and technical indicators * Volume data is sourced from [CoinGecko API](https://www.coingecko.com/en/api) for Binance exchange activity
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The information herein is derived from third-party data sources believed to be reliable, but we make no representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. We disclaim all liability for any loss, damage, or adverse consequences arising from reliance on this information or analysis. Data may contain errors, omissions, or delays. All calculations, projections, and risk assessments are provided as-is without warranty of any kind. Market conditions can change rapidly and unpredictably. Always conduct your own independent research and due diligence, and consult with qualified financial professionals before making any investment decisions. Use of this information is at your own risk and discretion.
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